Intel stock fell sharply in after-hours trading on Thursday 29 October 2026 after Intel reported a stronger-than-expected third quarter but issued a fourth-quarter outlook well below Wall Street expectations. The sell-off, reported at between about 17% and 23% in after-hours trading depending on the time of the report, turned a solid earnings beat into a warning about weaker personal computer demand and supply disruption.
Intel, the US semiconductor maker, reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% year on year, and adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share. That beat the roughly 40 to 41 cents analysts had expected, according to coverage of the results. The market reaction, however, was driven by what comes next rather than what Intel had just delivered.
Intel stock: why a Q3 beat still triggered a sell-off
The core reason for the fall was guidance. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, against analyst expectations of about $17 billion in revenue and about 43 cents per share. In other words, the company told investors to expect a smaller, less profitable final quarter than the market had priced in.
That gap mattered because Intel shares had already more than doubled during 2026 before the results, leaving little room for disappointment. A weaker outlook therefore hit a stock that had run hard on turnaround hopes, even though the third quarter itself showed progress in the data-centre business.
| Company | Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) |
| Event | Q3 2026 results, reported after the US market close on 29 October 2026 |
| Q3 revenue | $16.5 billion, up 21% year on year |
| Q3 adjusted earnings per share | 52 cents, above analyst expectations of about 40-41 cents |
| Q3 period | Quarter ended 26 September 2026 |
| Regular-session close, 29 Oct | $92.07, down 3.62% on the day |
| After-hours reaction | Sharp fall reported at about 17%-23% depending on report timing; Friday’s regular-session outcome is not claimed here |
| Q4 revenue guidance | $15 billion to $16 billion |
| Q4 adjusted EPS guidance | 25 cents |
| Analyst expectations for Q4 | About $17 billion revenue and about 43 cents per share |
| Key drags cited | Weaker PC demand, rising memory costs, supply disruption after the Israel fab explosion |
Data-centre AI surges while the PC business sags
Intel’s Data Center and AI business was the standout of the quarter, with revenue rising 78% year on year to $7.3 billion. Chief financial officer David Zinsner described it as Intel’s strongest data-centre growth in 15 years, and chief executive Lip-Bu Tan said unlocking more supply for Xeon server processors was now the company’s top priority.
The PC side told a different story. Revenue in the Client Computing and Physical AI group fell 5% year on year to $8.1 billion, missing expectations of about $8.9 billion. Management warned that the PC slowdown, driven in part by elevated memory prices, could persist at least through the first half of next year.
Intel’s foundry business, its contract-manufacturing arm, grew 58% year on year to $6.7 billion, although it still posted an operating loss of $1.85 billion. That loss was narrower than the $2.32 billion loss a year earlier, a sign of gradual improvement rather than a finished turnaround.
| Data Center and AI | $7.3 billion, up 78% year on year |
| Client Computing and Physical AI (PC) | $8.1 billion, down 5% year on year |
| Foundry | $6.7 billion, up 58% year on year; operating loss $1.85 billion |
| Total revenue | $16.5 billion, up 21% year on year |
| Q4 gross margin guidance | About 38%, down from about 43-44% in Q3 |
The Israel fab explosion and the memory squeeze behind the outlook
Part of the weak outlook traces to Kiryat Gat in Israel, where an explosion during a gas delivery on 14 October 2026 killed two workers and shut the fab for about two weeks. Intel estimates the disruption will cut fourth-quarter revenue by roughly $300 million, with a similar impact expected in the first quarter, for about $600 million across the two quarters.
The incident compounded a broader supply squeeze. Rising memory chip prices have raised costs for PC makers and weighed on demand, while substrate and memory shortages remain a lingering concern for the industry. Intel also raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to $20 billion, from $18 billion in July, as it builds manufacturing capacity for the AI era.
For investors, the question is whether the data-centre surge can offset a longer PC downturn. The third quarter suggests the AI server story is real, with data-centre revenue now almost as large as the PC business. The fourth-quarter guidance suggests the transition will still be bumpy, with thinner margins while Intel invests heavily.
What Intel stock watchers should track next
The next test will be whether PC demand stabilises in early 2027 and whether Intel can convert Xeon demand into supply without further disruption. Traders will also watch gross margin, which Intel expects to narrow to about 38% in the fourth quarter, and any update on the Israel fab’s return to full production.
The wider context matters too. Big Tech earnings have already produced sharp after-hours moves this week, as Amazon’s shares also fell after its own results, showing how quickly sentiment can turn when guidance disappoints even after a revenue beat. Intel’s move fits that pattern: the quarter was good, the outlook was not, and the market punished the outlook.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Intel stock fall if Q3 earnings beat expectations? Because the fourth-quarter outlook missed expectations by a wide margin. Intel guided to $15 billion to $16 billion in revenue and 25 cents per share, against about $17 billion and 43 cents expected, and investors reacted to that gap rather than to the third-quarter beat.
How much did Intel stock fall after the results? Reports varied with timing in after-hours trading, citing falls of about 17% to about 23%. Friday’s regular-session outcome is not claimed in this article, because it had not been settled at the time of writing.
What drove Intel’s Q3 revenue growth? Data-centre and AI demand. That segment grew 78% year on year to $7.3 billion, while the PC business fell 5% and the foundry business grew 58% but remained loss-making.
What is the Israel fab issue? An explosion at Intel’s Kiryat Gat fab in Israel on 14 October 2026 killed two workers and halted production for about two weeks. Intel expects about $300 million of fourth-quarter revenue impact and a similar amount in the first quarter.
Is Intel stock still up this year? Yes, on the reporting available at the time of writing. Intel shares had more than doubled during 2026 before the results, even after falling from their June high, so the after-hours drop came after a very strong run.
What should investors watch next? PC demand and memory prices, gross margin, Xeon supply, and any update on the Israel fab. The key debate is whether data-centre growth can carry the company through a PC downturn that management expects to last into at least the first half of next year.
