UK Electric Car Target Cut: Ministers Expected to Slash 2030 Goal as Burnham Says No Decision Made Yet

Ministers are expected to cut the UK’s electric car target by about a quarter this week, lowering the share of new cars that must be zero-emission by 2030 from 80% to about 60%, according to reports. Prime Minister Andy Burnham insisted on Monday 9 November 2026 that no decision has been made, calling the reports speculation as he prepared to attend the COP31 climate summit in Antalya.

The row centres on the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, the law that forces carmakers to sell a rising share of electric cars each year. The government opened a review of the mandate in August after carmakers warned the current targets were out of reach, and the consultation closed a fortnight ago.

The ZEV Mandate at a Glance

What the Reports Say — and What Burnham Said Back

The Guardian reported on Sunday 8 November that ministers were expected to make steep cuts to the electric vehicle targets this week, in a move that would relieve carmakers but alarm many Labour MPs who fear the government is drifting away from its green commitments. Government sources told the paper that Louise Haigh would finalise the plan after a crunch meeting in Downing Street on Wednesday, called to settle a long-running dispute between the transport, energy and business departments.

Burnham pushed back on Monday. “The consultation on the mandate for zero-emission vehicles concluded only a fortnight ago, so obviously that is being looked at now,” he said. “The range of responses to the consultation… so these reports are just that: they’re reports, they’re speculation and no decision has been made at this point.” PA reported his comments as he prepared to attend the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, his first as Prime Minister.

A government spokesperson struck the same note, saying the government was united in its commitment to the mandate and that no decisions had been taken. The spokesperson pointed to the commitment to phase out all new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, and to make 100% of new car and van sales zero emission by 2035, alongside the country’s legally binding net zero targets.

Why the Prime Minister Is Not Making the Call

Burnham has stepped back from the decision himself. He recused himself because his wife, Marie-France van Heel, advises the board of Be.EV, a Manchester-based electric vehicle charging network. Haigh will oversee the government’s decision-making process instead, a setup that keeps the Prime Minister at arm’s length from a ruling that could affect a company connected to his family.

The arrangement matters because the decision is politically loaded. Cutting the target would hand carmakers breathing room, but it would also hand critics a ready-made charge that Labour is watering down its climate promises on the eve of a global climate summit — and Burnham is flying to that summit this week.

The Numbers Behind the Dispute

The mandate was brought in by the last Conservative government, and its yearly ramp is steep. Carmakers must move from 33% zero-emission sales in 2026 to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028 and 66% in 2029, before reaching 80% in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

The industry says it is already falling short. SMMT data shows battery-electric cars made up 26.6% of new registrations from January to October 2026, against a 33% target for the year, and the trade body has previously called the current mandate a “fantasy”. Its own forecast puts battery-electric sales at 27.2% for the full year, rising to 32% in 2027 against a 38% target and 37.5% in 2028 against a 52% target.

October’s figures underline the gap and the progress at the same time. Battery-electric cars took 32% of the UK’s new car market in October, while petrol cars fell to 37.2%, the closest the two fuel types have ever been. Carmakers have spent heavily on discounts, deposit contributions and subsidised charging to move electric cars, on top of the government’s Electric Car Grant, and the SMMT argues that higher targets force supply without creating demand.

What a 60% Target Would Change

Under the options set out in the consultation, the 2030 target could be kept at 80% with flexibilities extended to 2034, or cut to 70%, 60% or 50%. The Guardian’s sources point to about 60%, with the mandate’s flexibilities — which let carmakers trade credits and count hybrids — extended to 2034.

A cut to 60% would still require a near-doubling of today’s electric share within four years, but it would remove the sharpest part of the ramp in 2028 and 2029, when the mandate jumps from 52% to 66% and then to 80%. For drivers, the practical effect would be slower pressure on manufacturers to discount electric models, and potentially a slower fall in electric car prices.

Green campaigners have already criticised the expected move, particularly given the timing as the COP31 climate summit opens. The government, for its part, insists that none of its underlying commitments has changed — the 2030 phase-out of new petrol and diesel-only cars, the 2035 zero-emission deadline for all new cars and vans, and the legally binding net zero targets all stand.

What Happens Next

The decision now rests with Haigh and the Downing Street meeting on Wednesday 11 November. Until that meeting, any new figure is a reported option, not settled policy, and the government has promised a formal response to the consultation by the end of 2026.

If the 60% figure is confirmed, the change would still need to be written into the regulations carmakers must follow. If the meeting instead keeps the 80% target, the industry will face the steepest part of the mandate ramp in 2027 and 2028 with sales still running well behind the required pace. Either way, the answer lands in the same week that world leaders gather in Antalya to argue over climate finance — and Burnham will be in the room.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ZEV mandate?

The zero-emission vehicle mandate is a UK law requiring carmakers to sell a rising share of zero-emission — usually electric — cars each year, climbing from 33% in 2026 to 80% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. It was introduced by the last Conservative government.

Has the electric car target actually been cut?

No. Reports say ministers are expected to cut the 2030 target from 80% to about 60%, but Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on 9 November that no decision has been made and the reports are speculation. A decision is expected after a Downing Street meeting on Wednesday 11 November.

What would a 60% target mean for drivers?

It would ease the pressure on manufacturers to discount electric cars to hit sales quotas, which could slow the fall in electric car prices. It would not change the 2030 phase-out of new petrol and diesel-only cars or the 2035 deadline for all new cars and vans to be zero-emission.

Why is Andy Burnham not deciding the target?

Burnham recused himself because his wife, Marie-France van Heel, advises the board of Be.EV, a Manchester-based electric vehicle charging network. Louise Haigh, the de facto deputy prime minister, is overseeing the decision instead.

Why do carmakers say the current target is unreachable?

SMMT data shows battery-electric cars at 26.6% of new registrations from January to October 2026, against a 33% target for the year, and the trade body forecasts 27.2% for the full year. It has called the mandate a “fantasy” and argues that higher targets force supply without creating demand.

When will the final decision be announced?

The government has promised a formal response to the ZEV mandate consultation by the end of 2026. The reported decision meeting is Wednesday 11 November, but no announcement date has been confirmed.

Myth check: is the government abandoning net zero?

No, on the government’s own account. Ministers say the phase-out of new petrol and diesel-only cars by 2030, the 100% zero-emission deadline for new cars and vans by 2035, and the legally binding net zero targets are all unchanged. What is under review is the pace of the sales mandate in between — and even that has not yet been decided.